IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.
The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.
The Rossolimo Variation of the Sicilian Defence: 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5 is one of the most popular anti-Sicilians.
Black's commonest reply is 3...g6, which scores 43%, but that is comfortably eclipsed by the 46% of 3...e6.
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| Position after 3...e6 |
A) 4.0-0 (7,832 games)
After 4...Nge7 the line splits.
A1 5.Re1 Nd4!?, after which the line splits again.
A1.1 6.Nxd4 cxd4, when A1.1a 7.c3 Nc6!? 8.d3 Bc5 scores 50% for Black and A1.1b 7.d3 a6 8.Ba4 Nc6 9.Nd2 b5 10.Bb3 Bb7 scores 67% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A1.2 6.Bf1 Nxf3+ 7.Qxf3 Nc6 scores 79% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A2 5.c3 a6, after which the line splits again.
A2.1 6.Ba4 c4!?, when A2.1a 7.d4 cxd3 8.Qxd3 reaches a position in which Black scores 61% with both 8...b5 and 8...Ng6, and A2.1b 7.Bc2 Ng6 8.b3 reaches a position in which Black scores 50% with both 8...cxb3 and 8...d5, albeit from very small samples.
A2.2 6.Bxc6 Nxc6 7.d4 d5, when A2.2a 8.exd5 Qxd5 9.Be3 c4 scores 66% for Black and A2.2b 8.e5 Bd7 scores 80% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A2.3 6.Be2 d5 7.exd5 exd5 8.d4 cxd4 scores 83% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.
A3 5.b3 Ng6 6.Bb2 Qc7 7.Re1 f6 8.c3 Be7 scores 100% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A4 5.Nc3 Ng6, after which the line splits again.
A4.1 6.d4 cxd4 7.Nxd4 Qc7 8.Be3 Be7 scores 70% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A4.2 6.Re1 Be7, when A4.2a 7.d4 cxd4 8.Nxd4 0-0 scores 54% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and A4.2b 7.Bxc6 bxc6 scores 95% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A4.3 6.Bxc6 bxc6, when A4.3a 7.d3 e5!? 8.Ne2 d5 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a very small sample, and A4.3b 7.e5 f6 scores 68% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A5. 5.d4 cxd4 6.Nxd4 Qb6, after which the line splits again.
A5.1 7.Nxc6 bxc6 (this and 7...Nxc6 score equally well, but Stockfish13 and Komodo12.1.1 prefer the pawn capture), when A5.1a 8.Bd3 Ng6 9.c4 Bc5 10.Nc3 Qc7!? scores 62% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and A5.1b 8.Be2 d5 scores 50% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.
A5.2 7.Bxc6 Nxc6 8.Nb3 Be7 scores 55% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B) 4.Bxc6 (4,191 games)
After 4...bxc6 the line splits.
B1 5.d3 Ne7, after which the line splits again.
B1.1 6.Qe2 d5!?, when B1.1a 7.c4 Ng6 8.0-0 Bd6 scores 66% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and B1.1b 7.0-0 Ng6 8.c4 is a transposition to B1.1a.
B1.2 6.0-0 Ng6, when B1.2a 7.Ng5 f6 8.Nh3 Bd6 scores 100% for Black, albeit from a very small sample, B1.2b 7.Nc3 is a transposition to A4.3a, and B1.2c 7.e5 f6 8.exf6 gxf6 scores 70% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B1.3 6.h4 d6 7.h5 e5 scores 63% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B2 5.0-0 Ne7, after which the line splits again.
B2.1 6.d3 is a transposition to B1.2.
B2.2 6.b3 Ng6 7.Bb2 f6, when B2.2a 8.e5 Be7 9.d3 0-0 10.Nbd2 Qc7!? scores 83% for Black, albeit from a very small sample, and B2.2b 8.d4 cxd4 9.Nxd4 Qc7 scores 79% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B3 5.b3 Ne7 6.Bb2 f6!? scores 62% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B4 5.e5 f6, after which the line splits again.
B4.1 6.0-0 fxe5 7.Nxe5 Nf6 scores 53% for Black.
B4.2 6.d3 fxe5 7.Nxe5 Nf6 scores 68% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
C) 4.c3 (364 games)
After 4...Qb6!? the line splits.
C1 5.Qe2 Nf6 scores 67% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
C2 5.Ba4 Nge7 also scores 67% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.
D) 4.Nc3 (249 games)
After 4...a6!? 5.Bxc6 bxc6 the line splits.
D1 6.0-0 Ne7 scores 100% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.
D2 6.d3 Qc7 also scores 100% for Black, but again from a very small sample.
E) 4.b3 (191 games)
After 4...Nge7 the line splits.
E1 5.Bb2 Ng6!? 6.0-0 is a transposition to A3.
E2 5.0-0!? is also a transposition to A3.
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