IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.
The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.
Because the English: 1.c4 is less forcing than 1.e4 or 1.d4, Black can copy White's moves.
The general thinking behind this is that the longer symmetry lasts, the less advantage White is likely to obtain.
White's most-popular response to 1...c5 is 2.Nc3, but this scores a disappointing 53%.
Another popular move, 2.g3, does better with 56%, but both these moves are eclipsed by the 60% of 2.Nf3.
After 2...Nf6 White scores 59% with 3.Nc3 and with 3.d4!? I have gone with the latter because it is considerably less well-known and foils the copycat plan.
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| Position after 3.d4!? |
Black has three popular replies.
A) 3...cxd4 (13,689 games)
After 4.Nxd4 the line splits.
A1 4...e5 5.Nb5, after which the line splits again.
A1.1 5...d5 6.cxd5 Bc5 (6...Nxd5?? 7.Qxd5 Qxd5 loses to 8.Nc7+) 7.N5c3!? 0-0 8.g3 Qb6 9.e3 Bg4 10.Be2, after which A1.1a 10...Bxe2 11.Qxe2 scores 67% for White and A1.1b 10...Bh3 11.Rg1!? scores 94% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A1.2 5...d6 6.N1c3 a6 7.Na3, after which A1.2a 7...Be6 8.e4 scores 57% for White, A1.2b 7...Be7 8.g3 scores 80% for White, albeit from a small sample, and A1.2c 7...Nc6 8.g3 scores 72% for White.
A2 4...Nc6 5.g3, after which the line splits again.
A2.1 5...g6 6.Bg2 Bg7 7.Nc3 0-0 8.Nc2!? d6 9.b3!? Be6 10.0-0 Qd7 11.e4!? scores 79% for White.
A2.2 5...Qb6 6.Nc2, when A2.2a 6...e6 7.Bg2 d5 8.0-0 dxc4 9.Nde3 scores 75% for White, albeit from a small sample, and A2.2b 6...Ne5 7.b3 scores 57% for White.
A2.3 5...e6 6.Bg2, when A2.3a 6...Qb6 7.Nb5!? scores 62% for White, A2.3b 6...Bc5 7.Nb3 scores 58% for White, A2.3c 6...Bb4+ 7.Nc3 scores 69% for White, A2.3d 6...a6 7.0-0 scores 73% for White and A2.3e 6...Be7 7.0-0 scores 71% for White.
A3 4...e6 5.g3, after which the line splits again.
A3.1 5...d5 6.Bg2 e5 7.Nb3 d4 8.e3!?, when A3.1a 8...a5 9.exd4 a4 10.N3d2 scores 60% for White, albeit from a small sample, and A3.1b 8...Bb4+ 9.Bd2 scores 75% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A3.2 5...Nc6 is a transposition to A2.3.
A3.3 5...Bb4+ 6.Nc3, when A3.3a 6...0-0 7.Bg2 d5 8.0-0 dxc4 9.Qa4 Na6 10.Ndb5 Nd5 11.Rd1 scores 60% for White and A3.3b 6...Ne4 7.Qd3 leads to another major split: A3.3b1 7...Qa5 8.Nb3 scores 60% for White, A3.3b2 7...Bxc3+ 8.bxc3 Nc5 9.Qd2 scores 67% for White and A3.3b3 7...Nxc3 8.bxc3 Be7 9.Bf4!? scores 67% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A3.4 5...Qc7 6.Qd3!? a6 7.Bg2 scores 68% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A3.5 5...a6 6.Bg2 Qc7 7.Nc3!? Qxc4 8.Bf4!? Nc6 9.Nb3 d5 10.0-0 scores 71% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A3.6 5...Qb6 6.Nc3, when A3.6a 6...Nc6 7.Nf3!? scores 58% for White and A3.6b 6...Bc5 7.e3 scores 65% for White.
A4 4...b6 5.f3!? Bb7 6.e4 d6 7.Nc3, after which the line splits again.
A4.1 7...e6 8.Be3 (this and 8.Be2 are equally successful and almost equally popular - in many cases the moves will transpose, but Be3 is arguably more flexible), when A4.1a 8...Be7 9.Qa4+ Nfd7!? 10.Be2 0-0 11.0-0 a6 12.Qc2 scores 80% for White, albeit from a small sample, and A4.1b 8...a6 9.Be2 Nbd7 10.0-0 Be7 11.a4 0-0 12.a5!? scores 69% for White.
A4.2 7...Nbd7 8.Be2, when A4.2a 8...a6 9.0-0 e6 10.a4!? Be7 11.a5!? scores 100% for White, albeit from a very small sample, and A4.2b 8...e6 9.0-0 Be7 10.Be3 0-0 11.Ndb5!? scores 65% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A5 4...g6 5.Nc3, after which the line splits again.
A5.1 5...Bg7 6.e4, when A5.1a 6...d6 7.Be2 0-0 8.0-0 Nc6 9.Nc2 scores 64% for White, A5.1b 6...Nc6 7.Nc2!? (this and 7.Be3 are equally successful, but the knight move is much-less well-known) 0-0 8.Be3 d6 9.Be2 scores 67% for White and A5.1c 6...0-0 7.Be2 Nc6 8.Nc2!? d6 9.0-0 is a transposition to A1.5a.
A5.2 5...Nc6 6.Nc2!? Bg7 7.g3 (7.e4 is a simpler repertoire choice as it transposes to A5.1b, but 7.g3 scores even better), when A5.2a 7...0-0 8.Bg2 d6 9.b3!? scores 69% for White and A5.2b 7...d6 8.Bg2 0-0 is a transposition to A2.5a.
B) 3...g6 (3,557 games)
After 4.Nc3 the line splits.
B1 4...cxd4 5.Nxd4 is a transposition to A5.
B2 4...Bg7 5.e4 (this and 5.d5 are equally successful but 5.e4 is a simpler repertoire fit), after which the line splits again.
B2.1 5...cxd4 6.Nxd4 is a transposition to A5.1
B2.2 5...0-0!? 6.Be2, when B2.2a 6...d6 7.0-0 cxd4 8.Nxd4 is a transposition to A1.5a and B2.2b 6...cxd4 7.Nxd4 is a transposition to A5.1c.
C) 3...e6!? (2,416 games)
After 4.d5 the line splits.
C1 4...exd5 5.cxd5, after which the line splits again.
C1.1 5...d6 6.e4!? g6 (6...Nxe4?? 7.Qa4+) 7.Bd3 Bg7 8.0-0 0-0 9.h3, when C1.1a 9...b5 10.Re1 c4 11.Bc2 scores 63% for White, C1.1b 9...Re8 10.Nc3 a6 11.a4 scores 68% for White and C1.1c 9...c4 10.Bc2 b5 11.Re1 transposes to C1.1a.
C1.2 5...g6 6.e4!?, when C1.2a 6...d6 is a transposition to C1.1 and C1.2b 6...Nxe4?! 7.Bd3 scores 100% for White, albeit from a very small sample.
C1.3 5...Bd6!? 6.Bg5!?, when C1.3a 6...h6 7.Bh4 scores 65% for White, albeit from a small sample, C1.3b 6...0-0 7.Nc3 Re8 8.e3 a6 9.Bd3!? scores 78% for White, albeit from a small sample, and C1.3c 6...Bc7!? 7.d6 Ba5+ 8.Nbd2 scores 80% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C2 4...b5 5.e4!? Nxe4 6.Bd3, after which the line splits again.
C2.1 6...Nf6 7.0-0, when C2.1a 7...Be7 8.Nc3 b4 9.Ne4 scores 88% for White and C2.1b 7...bxc4 8.Bxc4 scores 53% for White.
C2.2 6...Nd6 7.cxb5 scores 83% for White.
C3 4...d6 5.Nc3 exd5 6.cxd5 g6 7.h3!? (this and 7.Nd2!? score equally well, but the pawn move is much-less well-known) Bg7 8.e4 0-0 9.Bd3, after which the line splits again.
C3.1 9...b5!? 10.Nxb5, when C3.1a 10...Re8 11.0-0 Nxe4 12.Re1 a6 13.Nc3!? scores 72% for White and C3.1b 10...Nxe4 11.Bxe4 Re8 12.Ng5 Qa5+ 13.Nc3 Ba6 14.f3!? scores 85% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C3.2 9...a6 10.a4, when C3.2a 10...Nbd7 11.Bf4!? (this and 11.0-0 score equally well, but the bishop move is much-less well-known) Qe7 12.0-0 Nh5 13.Bh2 Ne5 14.Be2 scores 63% for White, C3.2b 10...Re8 11.0-0 Nbd7 12.Be3 (this and 12.Nd2 score equally well, but the bishop move is less well-known) scores 69% for White.
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