Beat The ... Elephant Gambit

IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.

The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.

The Elephant Gambit: 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 d5!?, also known as the Queen's Pawn Countergambit, can come as a shock to whites who have not seen it before.

The replies 3.exd5 and 3.Nxe5 both score 58%, but the latter is less than half as popular as the former, at least in Mega21, so that is the move I will cover.

Position after 3.Nxe5

Black has two popular replies and two other moves that, while not common in Mega21, could easily be played at club level.

A) 3...Bd6 (619 games)

After 4.d4 dxe4 5.Bf4!? Nf6 6.Bc4 0-0 7.Nc3 White scores 80%, albeit from a small sample (it is unusual for a line not to split long before this but Black has no significant alternatives along the way).

B) 3...dxe4 (200 games)

After 4.Bc4 the line splits.

B1 4...Qg5!? 5.Bxf7+ Ke7 6.d4 Qxg2 7.Rf1, after which the line splits again.

B1.1 7...Bh3 8.Bc4 Nf6 9.Bf4 scores 83% for White, albeit from a small sample.

B1.2 7...Nd7 8.Bc4 scores 75% for White, albeit from a small sample.

B2 4...Nh6 5.d4 scores 100% for White, albeit from a small sample.

C) 3...Qe7 (60 games)

After 4.d4 the line splits.

C1 4...f6 5.Nc3!? fxe5 6.Nxd5 Qf7 (6...Qd6?! 7.Qh5+ g6 8.Qxe5+ Qxe5 9.dxe5 gives White a large advantage, according to Stockfish13 and Komodo12.1.1) 7.Bc4 scores 100% for White, albeit from a small sample.

C2 4...dxe4 is rarely seen, but White scores 100% after both 5.Bc4 and 5...Nc3.

D) 3...Nf6 (19 games)

After 4.d4 the line splits.

D1 4...Nxe4 5.Nd2 Nxd2 6.Bxd2 scores 79% for White, albeit from a small sample.

D2 4...dxe4?! 5.Bc4 Be6 (5...Nd5?! 6.Nxf7! Kxf7 7.Qh5+ etc) 6.Bxe6 fxe6 7.Bg5 scores 83% for White, albeit from a small sample.