IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.
The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.
The Exchange Variation of the French Defence: 1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5 3.exd5 is a drawing weapon if both players are happy to split the point.
But how should Black play for a win?
First, 3...exd5, which scores 54%, is much better statistically than 3...Qxd5, which has been tried by grandmasters but scores 47%.
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| Position after 3...exd5 |
White has five moves that each appear more than 1,000 times in Mega21.
A) 4.Bd3 (25,643games)
Black's most-popular reply is 4...Bd6, which scores 53%, but the fourth most-popular move, 4...c5!?, beats this easily by scoring 63%, after which the line splits.
A1 5.dxc5 Bxc5, after which the line splits again.
A1.1 6.Nf3 Nf6 (6...Ne7 scores equally well, but Stockfish13 and Komodo12.1.1 prefer ...Nf6) 7.0-0 0-0, when A1.1a 8.Bg5 h6 9.Bh4 g5 10.Bg3 (10.Nxg5?! hxg5 11.Bxg5 Qd6! 12.Qf3 Ne4 is very good for Black) Ne4 scores 83% for Black, A1.1b 8.h3 Nc6 9.Bg5 h6 10.Bh4 Qd6 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and A1.1c 8.Nc3 h6 9.h3 Nc6 10.Bf4 Be6 scores 68% for Black.
A1.2 6.Nc3 Nf6 (6...Ne7 scores equally well, but Stockfish13 and Komodo12.1.1 prefer ...Nf6), when A1.2a 7.Nf3 0-0 8.0-0 is a transposition to A1.1c, A1.2b 7.Qe2 Be6 8.Bg5 0-0 9.0-0-0!? Nbd7 scores 70% for Black, albeit from a small sample, A1.2c 7.Bg5 0-0 8.Qf3 Bg4 scores 70% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and A1.2d 7.Nge2 Ng4!? scores 67% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A1.3 6.Ne2 Nf6 7.0-0 0-0, when A1.3a 8.Bg5 Nc6 scores 70% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and A1.3b 8.Nbc3 h6 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A2 5.c3 Nf6, after which the line splits again.
A2.1 6.Nf3 Be7 7.0-0 0-0, when A2.1a 8.dxc5 Bxc5 9.Nbd2 Nc6 10.Nb3 Bb6 11.Bg5 Bg4 scores 77% for Black, A2.1b 8.h3 h6!? scores 100% for Black, albeit from a very small sample, and A2.1c 8.Bg5 Nc6 scores 65% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A2.2 6.Bg5 cxd4!? 7.cxd4 Nc6 scores 100% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.
A3 5.Nf3 c4 6.Be2 Bd6, after which the line splits again.
A3.1 7.0-0 Nc6 8.b3 cxb3 9.axb3 Nge7 10.c4 0-0 11.Nc3 Bb4!? scores 78% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A3.2 7.b3 cxb3 8.axb3 Nge7 9.0-0 Nc6 is a transposition to A3.1.
A4 5.Qe2+ Be7!? 6.dxc5 Nf6 7.Nf3 0-0 8.0-0 Re8!? 9.Bg5 h6 10.Bh4 g5!? scores 100% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.
B) 4.Nf3 (23,044 games)
The reply 4...Bd6, after which the line splits, is both more popular and more successful than maintaining symmetry with 4...Nf6.
B1 5.Bd3 Nc6!?, after which the line splits again.
B1.1 6.0-0 Bg4, when B1.1a 7.c3 Qd7!? 8.Re1+ Nge7 9.Nbd2 f6!? 10.b4 0-0 11.Qc2 Bf5 scores 73% for Black and B1.1b 7.Re1+ Nge7 8.c3 Qd7 is a transposition to B1.1a.
B1.2 6.c3 Bg4!?, when B1.2a 7.0-0 is a transposition to B1.1a, B1.2b 7.Be3 Qd7!? 8.Nbd2 Nge7 9.Qc2!? h6!? scores 74% for Black, and B1.2c 7.h3 Bh5 8.0-0 Nge7 9.Re1 Qd7 10.Nbd2 f6!? 11.Qc2 0-0-0 12.b4 g5 scores 100% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B2 5.c4 Nf6!?, after which the line splits again.
B2.1 6.Nc3 0-0, when B2.1a 7.cxd5 h6!? 8.Be2 Nbd7 9.0-0 Nb6 10.Ne5 Nbxd5 scores 72% for Black and B2.1b 7.c5 Be7 (7...Re8+ is equally popular and scores equally well, but the engines slightly prefer the bishop move) 8.Bd3 b6 9.cxb6 axb6 scores 57% for Black.
B2.2 6.c5 Be7 7.Bd3 b6 8.cxb6 axb6 9.0-0 0-0 10.Nc3 c5 scores 67% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B3 5.Nc3 Ne7!?, after which the line splits again.
B3.1 6.Bd3 Nbc6, when B3.1a 7.0-0 Bg4 8.Be3 Qd7 scores 81% for Black and B3.1b 7.Be3 Nb4!? scores 100% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B3.2 6.Bg5 f6, when B3.2a 7.Be3 0-0 scores 100% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and B3.2b 7.Bh4 reaches a position in Mega21 in which Black scores 75% with both 7...c6 and 7...Nbc6, albeit from small samples.
B3.3 6.Be2 c6, when B3.3a 7.0-0 Bf5 8.Re1 0-0 scores 85% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and B3.3b 7.Bg5 f6 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B4 5.Be2 Nc6!?, after which the line splits again.
B4.1 6.0-0 Nge7, when B4.1a 7.Bg5 f6 8.Bh4 Bf5 scores 83% for Black, albeit from a small sample, B4.1b 7.Nc3 Bf5 scores 85% for Black and B4.1c 7.c4 dxc4 8.Bxc4 0-0 9.h3 Bf5 10.Nc3 reaches a position in Mega21 in which Black scores 59% with both 10...a6 and 10...Qd7.
B4.2 6.Nc3 Nge7 7.0-0 is a transposition to B4.1b.
B5 5.h3 Ne7, after which the line splits again.
B5.1 6.Bd3 Nbc6, when B5.1a 7.0-0 Nb4!? scores 79% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and B5.1b 7.c3 f6!? scores 72% for Black.
B5.2 6.c4 c6 7.Nc3 0-0 8.Bd3 Bf5!? scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B6 5.Bg5 f6, after which the line splits again.
B6.1 6.Bh4 Bg4 7.Be2 Ne7 8.Bg3 Nbc6 scores 83% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B6.2 6.Be3 Ne7 7.Bd3 Nbc6 scores 79% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
C 4.c4 (7,419 games)
Black's most-popular reply, 4...Nf6, scores 51% but is beaten by the 55% of 4...Nc6!?, after which the line splits.
C1 5.Nf3 Nf6 6.Nc3 Be7, after which the line splits again.
C1.1 7.cxd5 Nxd5, when C1.1a 8.Bc4 Nb6 9.Bb3 0-0 scores 83% for Black, albeit from a very small sample, and C1.1b 8.Bb5 Nxc3!? scores 100% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.
C1.2 7.Be2 0-0 8.0-0 dxc4!? 9.Bxc4 Bg4, when C1.2a 10.Be3 Qd6!? scores 57% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and C1.2b 10.d5?! Bxf3!? 11.Qxf3 Ne5 scores 100% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
C2 5.Nc3 Nf6, after which the line splits again.
C2.1 6.Nf3 is a transposition to C1.
C2.2 6.cxd5 Nxd5, when C2.2a 7.Bb5 Nxc3!? scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample, C2.2b 7.Bc4 Be6 scores 61% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and C2.2c 7.Nf3 Bg4 8.Be2 Be7 scores 62% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
C2.3 6.c5!? Bg4!? scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
C2.4 6.Be3 Bb4, when C2.4a 7.a3 Bxc3+ 8.bxc3 0-0 9.Nf3 Re8 scores 73% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and C2.4b 7.Bd3 0-0 8.Ne2 Be6 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.
C2.5 6.Bg5 dxc4!? scores 61% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
C3 5.Be3 Nf6 6.Nc3 is a transposition to C2.4.
D 4.Nc3 (3,493 games)
Black's most-popular reply, 4...Nf6, scores 61% but is beaten by the 66% of 4...c6!?, after which the line splits.
D1 5.Nf3 Bd6, after which the line splits again.
D1.1 6.Bd3 Ne7 7.0-0 Bg4 (7...0-0 scores equally well, but I have gone with the bishop move because it is much-less common and is preferred by Stockfish13, although Komodo12.1.1 prefers castling), when D1.1a 8.h3 Bh5 9.Re1 Nd7 10.Bg5 f6 scores 68% for Black and D1.1b 8.Re1 Qc7 9.h3 Bh5 scores 76% for Black.
D1.2 6.Be2 Bf5!? 7.0-0 Nd7 8.Re1 Ne7 scores 95% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
D2 5.Bd3 Bd6, after which the line splits again.
D2.1 6.Nge2 Qc7, when D2.1a 7.Bg5 h6!? scores 83% for Black, albeit from a very small sample, D2.1b 7.Be3 Ne7 8.Qd2 Nf5!? scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and D2.1c 7.Ng3!? Ne7 scores 66% for Black.
D2.2 6.Nf3 is a transposition to D1.1.
E 4.Bf4 (1,325 games)
After 4...Nf6 the line splits.
E1 5.Bd3 Bd6, after which the line splits again.
E1.1 6.Bxd6 Qxd6, when E1.1a 7.Nf3!? Qb4+ 8.Nbd2 0-0!? scores 79% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and E1.1b 7.c3 0-0 8.Ne2 b6!? 9.0-0 c5 also scores 79% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
E1.2 6.Ne2 0-0 7.0-0 reaches a position in Mega21 where Black scores 58% with both 7...Bg4 and 7...Nc6.
E2 5.Nf3 Be7 6.Bd3 0-0 7.0-0 Bg4 8.Nbd2 c5!? 9.dxc5 Bxc5 scores 62% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
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