Beat The ... Nimzowitsch-Larsen

IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.

The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.

The Nimzowitsch-Larsen: 1.b3 has never been very popular but has dedicated followers.

Black has four replies occurring more than 2,000 times each in Mega21.

Two of those replies, 1...e5 and 1...c5!?, equalise, at least statistically, in that they score 50%.

I have gone with the latter as it is much less popular, but has nevertheless been played by Magnus Carlsen.

Position after 1...c5!?

White overwhelmingly continues with 2.Bb2, but 2.c4, although it only occurs 117 times in Mega21, is well worth looking at as it discourages Black from immediately grabbing more of the centre with ...d5. 

A) 2.Bb2 (1,908 games)

After 2...d5 (this and 2...b6 score equally well, but ...d5 is much preferred by the analysis engines Stockfish13 and Komodo12.1.1) the line splits.

A1 3.e3 a6!?, after which the line splits again.

A1.1 4.Nf3 Nc6, when A1.1a 5.d4 Nf6 6.Be2 cxd4 7.Nxd4 Qa5+!? scores 67% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and A1.1b 5.Be2 d4!? scores 73% for Black.

A1.2 4.f4 Nc6 5.Nf3 Nf6 6.Be2 e6 7.0-0 Bd6, when A1.2a 8.Ne5 Qc7 9.Nxc6 Qxc6 scores 67% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and A1.2b 8.Qe1 reaches a position in Mega21 in which Black scores 50% with 8...Ne7 and 8...Nb4, albeit from very small samples.

A2 3.Nf3 f6!? 4.e3 e5, after which the line splits again.

A2.1 5.d4 cxd4 6.exd4 e4 7.Nfd2 f5 8.c4 Nf6 9.Nc3 Be6 10.cxd5 Nxd5, when A2.1a 11.Bc4 Bb4 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and A2.1b 11.Bb5+ Nc6 12.0-0 Bd6!? scores 67% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.

A2.2 5.Bb5+ Nc6, when A2.2a 6.0-0 Bd6 scores 80% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and A2.2b 6.Bxc6+ bxc6 7.d3 Bd6 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

A3 5.Nxe5?! fxe5 6.Qh5+ Ke7 7.Qxe5+ Be6 scores 71% for Black. 

B) 2.c4 (117 games)

After 2...Nc6 3.Bb2 d6 the line splits.

B1 4.g3 e5 5.Bg2 Nge7, after which the line splits again.

B1.1 6.Nc3 g6 scores 55% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

B1.2 6.e3 Bf5 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.

B2 4.e3 Bf5 scores 62% for Black, albeit from a small sample.