IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.
The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.
The Nimzowitsch Defence: 1.e4 Nc6 is very much an opening more popular at club level than among the elite.
White's commonest reply is not, as might be expected, 2.d4, but 2.Nf3.
The latter is also more successful, statistically, scoring 54% against the 51% of 2.d4.
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| Position after 2.Nf3 |
A) 2...d6 (5,912 games)
After 3.d4 the line splits.
A1 3...Nf6 4.c3!?, after which the line splits again.
A1.1 4...g6 5.Bd3 Bg7 6.0-0 0-0 7.d5!?, when A1.1a 7...Nb8 8.h3 scores 57% for White and A1.1b 7...Ne5 8.Nxe5 dxe5 9.c4 scores 67% for White.
A1.2 4...Bg4 5.Nbd2, when A1.2a 5...e6 6.Bb5!? scores 93% for White, albeit from a small sample, and A1.2b 5...e5 6.Bb5!? scores 75% for White.
A2 3...Bg4 4.d5!?, after which the line splits again.
A2.1 4...Nb8 5.Nc3 scores 80% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A2.2 4...Ne5 5.Nxe5!? Bxd1 6.Bb5+ c6 7.dxc6, when A2.2a 7...Qa5+ 8.Nc3 0-0-0 9.Nc4 Qc7 10.Nd5 scores 94% for White, albeit from a small sample and A2.2b 7...a6 8.c7+ axb5 9.cxd8=Q+ Rxd8 reaches a position in Mega21 where White scores 100% with both 10.Nxf7 and 10.Kxd1, albeit from very small samples.
A3 3...g6 4.d5, after which the line splits again.
A3.1 4...Nb8 5.c4 Bg7 6.Be2, when A3.1a 6...Nf6 7.Nc3 0-0 8.Be3!? scores 79% for White and A3.1b 6...e5 reaches a position in Mega21 where White scores 100% with both 10.0-0 and 10.h3, albeit from very small samples.
A3.2 4...Ne5 5.Nxe5 dxe5 6.c4 scores 81% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A4 3...e5 4.dxe5, after which the line splits again.
A4.1 4...dxe5 5.Qxd8+, when A4.1a 5...Kxd8 6.Ng5!? scores 94% for White and A4.1b 5...Nxd8!? 6.Nxe5 Nf6 7.f3 scores 98% for White.
A4.2 4...Nxe5 5.Nxe5 dxe5 6.Qxd8+ Kxd8 7.Bc4 f6 8.Nc3, when A4.2a 8...c6 9.Be3 Kc7 10.0-0-0 scores 64% for White, albeit from a small sample, and A4.2b 8...Bb4 9.Bd2 scores 85% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A4.3 4...Bg4?! 5.exd6 Bxd6 6.Be2, when A4.3a 6...Nf6 7.Bg5!? scores 100% for White, albeit from a small sample, and A4.3b 6...Qe7 7.0-0!? scores 75% for White, albeit from a small sample.
B) 2...e5 (4,607 games) is a transposition to mainline double-e pawn openings and will not be covered here.
C) 2...d5!? (1,801 games)
After 3.exd5 Qxd5 4.d4!? the line splits.
C1 4...Bg4 5.Be2, after which the line splits again.
C1.1 5...0-0-0 6.Be3, when C1.1a 6...e5 7.c4 Qa5+ 8.Bd2 Bb4 9.d5 Bxf3 10.Bxf3 Nd4 11.Nc3 Qa6 12.b3!? scores 64% for White and C1.1b 6...Nf6 7.Nbd2!? scores 69% for White.
C1.2 5...e6 6.h3 Bh5 7.Be3 scores 71% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C2 4...e5 5.Nc3 Bb4 6.Bd2 Bxc3 7.Bxc3 e4 8.Ne5 Nxe5 9.dxe5 Ne7 10.Qe2, after which the line splits again.
C2.1 10...Bf5 11.Rd1 scores 70% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C2.2 10...Be6 11.Rd1 Qc6 12.Qb5 scores 64% for White, albeit from a small sample.
D) 2...Nf6!? (1,186 games)
After 3.e5 the line splits.
D1 3...Ng4?! 4.d4 d6 5.h3 Nh6 6.Nc3, after which the line splits again.
D1.1 6...a6 7.g4 scores 100% for White, albeit from a small sample.
D1.2 6...g6 reaches a position in Mega21 where White scores 100% with both 7.Bf4 and 7.g4, albeit from very small samples.
D1.3 6...dxe5?! 7.d5 scores 100% for White, albeit from a small sample.
D2 3...Nd5 4.c4 Nb6 5.d4 (5.c5 scores equally well in Mega21, but Stockfish13 and Komodo12.1.1 much prefer d4) d6 reaches D) in Beat The ... Alekhine: https://beauchess.blogspot.com/2021/05/beat-alekhine.html
E) 2...f5!? (993 games)
3.exf5 d5 4.Bb5!? Bxf5 5.0-0!? scores 74% for White.
F) 2...e6 (831 games)
After 3.d4 the line splits.
F1 3...d5 4.Nbd2!? Nf6 5.e5, after which the line splits again.
F1.1 5...Nd7 6.c4!? dxc4 7.Bxc4!? scores 67% for White.
F1.2 5...Ne4!? 6.c3, when F1.2a 6...Nxd2 7.Bxd2 scores 74% for White and F1.2b 6...f5 7.exf6 Nxf6 8.Ne5 scores 88% for White, albeit from a small sample.
F2 3...Nf6 4.Nc3, after which the line splits again.
F2.1 4...Bb4 5.Bd3, when F2.1a 5...d5 6.0-0!? Bxc3 7.exd5 Nxd4 8.bxc3 Nxf3+ 9.Qxf3 Qxd5 10.Qg3 scores 63% for White and F2.1b 5...0-0 6.0-0!? scores 86% for White, albeit from a small sample.
F2.2 4...d5 5.Bd3!?, when F2.2a 5...Bb4 is a transposition to F2.1a, and F2.2b 5...Nb4 6.Bg5 Be7 7.e5 Nd7 8.Bxe7 Qxe7 9.Be2!? scores 75% for White, albeit from a small sample.
F3 3...d6 4.c4 Nf6 5.Nc3, after which the line splits again.
F3.1 5...Be7 6.Bd3, when F3.1a 6...0-0 7.0-0 e5 8.d5 Nb4 9.Be2 scores 72% for White, albeit from a small sample, and F3.1b 6...e5 7.d5 scores 62% for White, albeit from a small sample.
F3.2 5...g6 6.Bg5 scores 75% for White, albeit from a small sample.
G) 2...g6 (501 games)
After 3.d4 Bg7 4.Be2!? d6 5.d5 Ne5 6.Nxe5 the line splits.
G1 6...dxe5 6.0-0 scores 67% for White, albeit from a small sample.
G2 6...Bxe5 7.0-0 scores 73% for White, albeit from a small sample.
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