Beat The ... Ponziani

IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.

The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.

The Ponziani: 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.c3 has a doubtful theoretical reputation, but Magnus Carlsen is among those who have played the opening and it has a dedicated following at club level.

Black's most-popular reply, 3...Nf6, scores 44%, but this is well-beaten by the 52% for 3...d5.

Position after 3...d5

White has four reasonably popular continuations.

A) 4.Qa4 (1,363 games)

After 4...Nf6!? (other moves are much more popular but cannot compete with ...Nf6's score of 57%) 5.Nxe5 Bd6 6.Nxc6 bxc6 7.d3 (7.Qxc6+?! Bd7 gives Black huge compensation for being, temporarily, two pawns down) 0-0 8.Be2 Re8 the line splits.

A1 9.Nd2 Bg4 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

A2 9.Bg5 Rb8 scores 100% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.

B) 4.Bb5 (453 games)

After 4...dxe4 5.Nxe5 Qg5!? the line splits.

B1 6.Qa4 Qxg2, after which the line splits again.

B1.1 7.Bxc6+ bxc6 8.Qxc6+ Kd8!? 9.Rf1 (9.Nxf7+? Ke7 10.Qxc7+ Ke8 11.Rf1 Bh3 12.Qc4 Rc8) Bh3 10.Qxa8+ Ke7 11.Kd1 Qxf1+ 12.Kc2 Bf5 scores 95% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

B1.2 7.Rf1 Bh3 scores 93% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

B2 6.d4 Qxg2 7.Rf1 Bd6 scores 79% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

C) 4.exd5 (158 games)

After 4...Qxd5 the line splits.

C1 5.d3 Bg4 6.Be2 0-0-0 scores 93% for Black.

C2 5.d4 Bg4 6.Be2 0-0-0, after which the line splits again.

C2.1 7.Be3 e4 8.Nfd2 Bxe2 9.Qxe2 f5 scores 83% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

C2.2 7.c4 Qe4, when C2.2a 8.Nbd2 Bb4 scores 87% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and C2.2b 8.Nc3 Bb4 scores 80% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

C2.3 7.dxe5 Qxd1+ 8.Kxd1 Nxe5 12.0-0 Nxf3 13.Bxf3 Bxf3 scores 64% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

C3 5.c4 Qd8 6.Nc3 Nf6 scores 100% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

D) 4.d3 (96 games)

After 4...dxe4 5.dxe4 Qxd1+ 6.Kxd1 Nf6 7.Bd3 Bc5 Black scores 83%, albeit from a very small sample.