IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.
The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.
The Rubinstein Variation of the French Defence: 1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5 3.Nc3/d2 dxe4 is most-successfully met by 4.Nxe4, after which Black has seven continuations appearing more than 300 times each in Mega21.
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| Position after 4.Nxe4 |
White scores 61% with the most popular move 5.Nf3, 64% with the second-most popular move 5.Bd3, but 68% with the third-most popular 5.g3!?
After 5...Ngf6 6.Nxf6+ Nxf6 7.Bg2 the line splits.
A1 7...c5 8.Nf3 cxd4 9.Qxd4 Qxd4 10.Nxd4, after which the line splits again.
A1.1 10...Bc5 11.Nb3, when A1.1a 11...Bd6 12.Be3 scores 91% for White, albeit from a small sample, and A1.1b 11...Bb6 12.0-0 scores 85% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A1.2 10...a6 11.Bf4 scores 95% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A2 7...e5!? 8.Qe2!? Qxd4 9.Nf3 scores 68% for White.
A3 7...Be7 8.Nf3 0-0 9.0-0 c5 10.dxc5 Bxc5 11.Qe2 scores 86% for White, albeit from a small sample.
B) 4...Bd7 (9,598 games)
White scores 62% with the most popular move 5.Nf3, 60% with the second-most popular move 5.Bd3, but 64% with the third-most popular 5.c4!?
After 5...Bc6 6.Nc3 Nf6 7.Nf3!? Bxf3 8.Qxf3 the line splits.
B1 8...c6 9.Be3 Nbd7 10.Bd3 scores 71% for White, albeit from a small sample.
B2 8...Nc6 9.Be3!? scores 80% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C) 4...Nf6 (4,580 games)
After 5.Nxf6+ the line splits.
C1 5...Qxf6 6.Nf3, after which the line splits again.
C1.1 6...h6 7.Bd3, when C1.1a 7...Bd6 8.Qe2 Nc6 9.c3 Bd7 10.Be3 scores 92% for White, albeit from a small sample, C1.1b 7...Nc6 8.0-0 Bd7 9.c3 Bd6 10.Qe2 0-0-0 11.b4 scores 76% for White and C1.1c 7...c5 8.Be3 Nc6 9.0-0 cxd4 10.Nxd4 Bd7 11.Nb5 scores 86% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C1.2 6...Qd8!? 7.Bd3, when C1.2a 7...Be7 8.Qe2 Nd7 9.Bd2 scores 93% for White, albeit from a small sample, C1.2b 7...Nd7 8.0-0 Be7 9.Qe2 scores 92% for White, albeit from a small sample, and C1.2c 7...c5 8.0-0 scores 88% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C2 5...gxf6 6.Nf3, after which the line splits again.
C2.1 6...b6 7.g3!? Bb7 8.Bg2 scores 79% for White.
C2.2 6...c5 7.Be3, when C2.2a 7...cxd4 8.Nxd4 scores 82% for White and C2.2b 7...Qb6 8.dxc5 Bxc5 9.Bxc5 Qxc5 10.Qd2 scores 75% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C2.3 6...Nc6 7.g3 scores 75% for White, albeit from a small sample.
D) 4...Be7 (1,774 games)
After 5.Nf3 the line splits.
D1 5...Nf6 6.Bd3, after which the line splits again.
D1.1 6...Nbd7 7.Qe2, when D1.1a 7...0-0 8.Nxf6+ Nxf6 9.Bg5 c5 10.0-0-0 cxd4 11.h4 Qa5 12.Kb1 scores 84% for White, D1.1b 7...Nxe4 8.Qxe4!? Nf6 9.Qh4 scores 91% for White, D1.1c 7...c5 8.c3!? cxd4 9.Nxd4 scores 71% for White, albeit from a small sample, and D1.1d 7...b6 8.Neg5 scores 94% for White, albeit from a small sample.
D1.2 6...0-0 7.c3!? Nbd7 8.Qe2 scores 78% for White.
D1.3 6...Nxe4 7.Bxe4 Nd7 8.0-0 Nf6 9.Bd3 0-0 10.Ne5 c5 11.dxc5, when D1.3a 11...Bxc5 12.Qe2 scores 77% for White and D1.3b 11...Qc7 12.Re1 Qxc5 13.Qf3 scores 88% for White, albeit from a small sample.
D2 5...Nd7 6.Bd3 Ngf6 is a transposition to D1.1.
E) 4...Qd5!? (594 games)
After 5.Nc3 the line splits.
E1 5...Bb4 6.Nf3 Nf6 7.Bd3, after which the line splits again.
E1.1 7...Ne4 8.Bd2 Bxc3 9.bxc3 Nxd2 10.Qxd2 scores 75% for White.
E1.2 7...b6 8.Qe2 Bb7 9.0-0 Bxc3 10.bxc3, when E1.2a 10...0-0 11.Re1 scores 78% for White, albeit from a small sample, and E1.2b 10...Qh5 11.c4 scores 67% for White, albeit from a small sample.
E1.3 7...0-0 8.0-0 Bxc3 9.bxc3 scores 82% for White.
E2 5...Qd8 6.Nf3 Nf6 7.Bd3, after which the line splits again.
E2.1 7...Be7 8.Qe2!? scores 81% for White, albeit from a small sample.
E2.2 7...c5 8.0-0, when E2.2a 8...Nc6 9.dxc5 Bxc5 10.a3!? scores 83% for White, albeit from a very small sample, and E2.2b 8...cxd4 9.Nxd4 Be7 (9...Qxd4?? 10.Bb5+ etc) 10.Bf4 scores 90% for White, albeit from a small sample.
F) 4...Nc6 (421 games)
After 5.Nf3 the line splits.
F1 5...Be7 6.c3 Nf6 7.Bd3, after which the line splits again.
F1.1 7...0-0 8.Qc2 h6 9.Nxf6+ Bxf6 10.Bf4 scores 100% for White, albeit from a small sample.
F1.2 7...b6 8.Nxf6+ Bxf6 9.Be4 scores 70% for White, albeit from a small sample.
F1.3 7...h6 8.Qe2 scores 100% for White, albeit from a small sample.
F1.4 7...Nxe4 8.Bxe4 scores 87% for White.
F1.5 7...Bd7 8.Qc2 scores 90% for White, albeit from a small sample.
F2 5...Nf6 6.Nxf6+, after which the line splits again.
F2.1 6...Qxf6 7.Bd3!? h6 is a transposition to C1.1b.
F2.2 6...gxf6 is a transposition to C2.3.
G) 4...b6 (314 games)
After 5.Nf3 Bb7 6.Bb5+!? c6 7.Bd3 the line splits.
G1 7...Be7 8.Qe2 scores 83% for White, albeit from a small sample.
G2 7...Nd7 8.Qe2 scores 100% for White, albeit from a small sample.
G3 7...Nf6 8.Qe2 scores 90% for White, albeit from a small sample.
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